中共对美超限战的活教材！中共正全网删除

2020年12月6日星期日

中共对美超限战的活教材！中共正全网删除

中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长、中共对外战略研究中心副主任兼祕书长、国际货币所特聘研究员翟东升2020年11月28日在总部位于上海的观传媒大型年终秀《答案》现场，围绕《中国金融开放会引来华尔街之狼吗？》的主题，发表的演讲的节选。

中国大陆全网删除的中共对美超限战的活教材（中英字幕，附文字版）

翟东升：开放金融市场是向拜登释放善意华尔街搞不定川普

以下是中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长、中共对外战略研究中心副主任兼祕书长、国际货币所特聘研究员翟东升2020年11月28日在总部位于上海的观传媒大型年终秀《答案》现场，围绕《中国金融开放会引来华尔街之狼吗？》的主题，发表的演讲的节选。参加这次讨论的还有前亚洲发展银行前行长、中共央行前国际司司长张之骧、中共国务院发展研究中心世界发展研究所副所长丁一凡以及北大国家发展研究院院长姚洋。

演讲视频（中英文字幕）

中共对美超限战的活教材！中共正全网删除(图/视频)

文字版：

2020年为什么金融开放在加速？

关键在什麽？关键就就在于我们今天这个主题，金融开放的问题。你金融市场还并没有完全充分的开放，尤其是，除了外资机构进入的问题，展业的问题，还有一个什麽呢？还有一个资本项目并没有完全真正的开放，所以它对上海的在全球层面上的这样一个竞争，还是形成了一定的限制，我在《政经啓翟》中间曾经讲过。那麽我的观点，地球村里面目前只有一家半在卖保险，就美国。美国它的货币是全球储备货币，所以它替别人承担了风险，然后欧元担任了半家，地球村里边两百多个大大小小的经济体裡面，绝大部分都是付出代价来转移风险，是这意思吧？都是付出代价转移风险。就相当于投保客户，地球村里面只有一家半可以卖保险，开保险公司。

咱们中国性质比较特殊，地球村里面最大的实体经济，是这意思吧？最大的投保户。因爲各种事情投保，我们投保了多少？3万亿美元，最高峯的4.2亿美元。

问题就来了，假如哪天我们真的出事了，真有经济金融风险了，我们动用我们的3万亿4万亿外汇储备去找美国，这相当于一张保单嘛，找美国说你帮我兑付，他也得破产。是这意思吧？这保险公司说，抱歉，不干了。是不是？

所以从这个逻辑上来讲，我一贯是反对原先那种中美的挂钩方式，过会儿还会谈到，我也一直主张中国人民币要国际化，我一直主张我们也要开这个保险公司。要想开这保险公司，就是今天这个话题，金融市场得开放，资本项目得适度开放。

那麽为什麽最近，我们都知道19年，尤其是进入2020年，那麽中国的金融开放是加速的，为什麽加速？首先第一个原因，2001年中国加入世贸组织的时候，我们是承诺过的，承诺我们会在条件合适的时候儘快开放，但是20年了，刚才姚老师讲到，外资金融机构进来，他们有多少进来？大家生活中，你买股票是通过外资投行买吗？你存银行存的是外资银行吗？最多保险公司稍微有一点。所以这个事情，咱们要前半夜想想人家，后半夜再想想自己。就是你承诺过开放，你要兑现。要不然凭什麽人家的门向你开放？开放是相互的。

政治和战术的考量：华尔街搞不定川普

那么以前我们是以那样一种方式，刚才讲过的那样一种方式挂钩，但是现在人家想跟我们脱鈎，所以我的理解，当然是我个人的解读，为什么在现在这个时候开始加速？首先是20年前我们承诺过的，第2个，当前中国政府力推金融市场开放，在时机上可能，我最再强调一下，这是我个人猜测，可能跟这个政治和战术考量有关係。为什麽？因为我们知道，前边川普政府跟我们打贸易战，那麽我们为什麽搞不定川普政府？为什麽以前，1992年到2016年之间，中美之间各种问题都能搞得定？大家发现没有，什麽的危机，不管是银河号事件，还是炸大使馆，还是撞了飞机，所以事情全部都是”牀头吵架牀尾和”，两个月之内搞定。什么原因？这儿我抛出一个，可能又是要暴论了，就是因爲咱们上边有人。我们在美国的权势核心圈，我们有我们的老朋友。

“中国人民的老朋友”用《教父》中黑社会经典手法搞定华盛顿“不听话”书店老板

时间关係，我这儿就不多展开，给大家讲个小故事。张市长我看讲得非常好，都是讲故事，是吧？所以我也讲个故事。

哎呀，可惜这故事……今天全网直播，据说百万人在看，所以我得掌握一下这个度，不能把人给卖了。

这麽讲吧，2015年，上上次习总书记访问美国之前，我们知道，各个系统都要在美国帮他暖场，是不是？那麽咱们党的某个系统，他在美国帮他暖场的方式，就是舆论，就是《习近平谈治国理论》这本书的英文版新书，第一版新书发布会，放在美国，在他去之前，先搞个新书发布会，帮他造势。

由谁来做呢？就跟今天一样，他们发现，说翟东升，你这家伙比较擅长忽悠老外，是不是？因爲他们看过我怎麽忽悠老外的，他们觉得现场效果非常不错，你来主持兼嘉宾，所以那次跟咱们今天这个活动很相似，我既是主持，又是嘉宾。

地点呢，领导定下来了，他说，这个谁谁谁，你们下週，下週礼拜四，下午三点半，去那个美国最重要的政治与散文书店，在华盛顿Connecticut大街，2650吧？好像是，专业书店，去那边办一个新书发布会，我们就赶紧去沟通啊。

大家知道这个东西方工作方式不一样，你临时抱佛脚让我去沟通这个地点，时间，很麻烦的，结果那个书店老闆很傲娇，他说抱歉，接待不了，接待不了，后来我就问，我说，你告诉我，哪位作者把这个场次定下来了？啥意思啊？天下没有美元搞不定的事情，是吧？如果一沓美元搞不定，我就两沓。当然这是我的工作方式。

结果书店老闆很傲娇，说抱歉，我不会告诉你哪个作者已经把这个时间段定下来了，我们是有原则的，他跟我非常傲娇，他跟我很装，后来一打听才知道，这哥们啊，以前是民主党人，以前做过驻亚洲的记者，对我党非常有看法，所以故意的不配合。

后来我以爲这事儿给黄了，至少得换时间，换地点，是吧？结果，我把矛盾上交吧，让领导去解决吧，反正我是客串的，帮忙的，是吧？

结果到了礼拜四早上，咱们那个部的副部级领导，也是那天的真正的keynote speaker，他给我打电话，说小翟啊，咱们按我方原计划，在那个时间，在那个地点，继续照办。

吃完午饭我就赶去，结果领导到得比我还早，跟我介绍，今天我们之所以能够得以按照原计划顺利执行，就是因爲我们今天这位功臣，他介绍一位大鼻子的老太太，一看就是犹太人，老太太给我递名片，我叫某某某，我这儿名字不卖了，我叫某某某，请多关照，注意啊，一口流利的京片子，北京话，

我很惊讶，我说，哎呦，您这个中文讲得比我还棒啊，我永远改不了我的江苏口音，您这个一点口音都没有啊。老太太听我夸她口音好，得意了，我告诉你啊，我不但会讲中文，我还有中国国籍。

大家知道吧？你有外国国籍吗？你如果有外国国籍，你就不可能有中国国籍嘛，是不是？她这个老太太是不可能爲了中国国籍放弃美国和以色列双重国籍的，是这意思吧？

哦，我一下明白了，这是我们中国人民老朋友啦，下边还有一句话，让我印象非常深刻，我不但有中国国籍，我还有北京市户口，长安街边上，东城区有一套四合院，等你回来北京过来喝茶，这一年你在这儿有啥事儿，记得找我，意思嘛，这地点我罩得住。

然后我看见前边那个很傲娇的那个书店老闆满脸黑起来，安排员工排桌子排椅子，很不情愿，被人强按著干这事儿，接这个茬。

我说你怎麽搞定他的？我们前面沟通，沟通不下来呀，很傲娇的，老太太狡诘一笑，”我跟他讲道理。”

大家知道这话来路吧？美国著名黑手党电影《教父》里面的经典台词，把人家马头给砍了，塞人家被窝里面。

当然老太太不是黑手党，老太太身份是什麽？她爲什麽在中国住了三十年？爲什麽讲一口流利的京片子？就刚才我们讲的，全球华尔街某著名金融机构，顶级金融机构亚洲区的总裁。当然再说下去可能政治不正确了。

大家明白我意思吧？懂得（给）掌声啊。

好，那么其实就是说，说的白了点，其实就过去30年，过去40年，我们在美国利用他权势核心。

拜登上台了，我们需表示善意

我前面讲过，华尔街在1970年代开始，对美国它的内政外交有非常强的影响力，所以我们有路径依赖，但问题是08年之后华尔街的地位下降了，更重要的是16年之后华尔街搞不定川普。为什么？很尴尬。川普以前对华尔街有过一次软性违约，所以双方有矛盾，当然这个细节我就不多说了，时间可能已经来不及了。

那么中美贸易战过程中，他们也试图帮忙，据我所知，美方的朋友跟我讲，试图帮忙，但是力有不逮。

但现在我们看到拜登上台了，传统的精英，政治精英，建制派，他们跟华尔街的关系是非常密切的，所以大家看到了吧？拜登的儿子被川普说，你在全球有什么基金公司，发现没有？谁帮他建的基金公司啊？明白了？这里面都有买卖。

那麽所以这个时候，我们以恰当的方式进行一定的，这样一个，表达一个善意，我个人理解，当然受限于我的专业基础，我们是从国际政治经济学的角度，去理解这个事。那么我认为有他的战术和政治的价值在里面。

当然另外一方面, 中美之间开放本身，现在我们开放金融市场，很多人以为说，开放金融市场，你是不是向人做了重大让步，你开放金融市场不是就是为了抱著美国大腿后，哭著喊著你别跑，别甩下我，是不是这样？为了不脱钩？

开放金融市场免被别人卡脖子

能不能这么理解？我的理解反过来。我恰恰认为，这可能又是一个暴论，恰恰认为，金融市场开放恰恰是对美国的某种意义上的脱钩。我们开放金融市场，恰恰是某种意义上脱钩。那我再问大家了，为什么咱们有许多地方被人卡脖子？大家知道了，今天中午刚刚看到一个新闻，人家发我这个新闻，咱们香港特首林郑月娥，现在如果每天上街买菜买包买衣服，大家知道干嘛呢？揣了一大把的现金。为什么？她已经没有银行账户了，她没办法用credit card，没法用什么金融支付工具，只能用现金去买东西。

为什么？她被美国制裁了。那么为什么我们会被美国制裁？为什么我们在金融上、支付上、跨境支付上，为我们在芯片上等等，还有软件上等等会被美国制裁？什么原因，为什么在底层的科学上、技术上，我们会被美国制裁？它背后什么原因，当然有很多原因，在这儿我想提出一个观点，就这个原因，恰恰就在于以前的中美的挂钩方式。

我们知道在80年代的时候，东北是很繁荣的，为什么？东北是整个中国经济的根部。是不是这样，我们的大学是自己做底层的科学研究的，为什么？因为我们那个时候是一个独自存在的一颗，也可以把它理解成一棵树，它有自己的根，有自己的干，有自己的茎，还有自己的叶，有自己的花，当然比较小一点，相对于美国主导的世界资本主义体系，世界市场体系，它的分工体系，你这个要小得多，力量弱得多。

但是你是完整的、独立的工业体系。中国加入到美国主导的世界经济，尤其是92年大规模，92年之后我们大规模招商引资，所以东南沿海的迅速发展起来了，东北衰落了，爲什麽？其实就是沿著干的中部咔嚓一刀，把上边的直接嫁接到它的根和干上去了。明白吗？那个能量很大，那个市场很大，所以迅速的繁荣，迅速开花结果，我们今天都在享受这个决策的成果，我们每个人都过得好了。

但问题是，所有的选择，所有的战略都有它的代价，是不是这个意思？这代价是什么？我们原先根和枝干就枯萎了，所以原先我们有两、三百家做芯片、做光刻机的这种全产业链的企业，就都枯萎了，因为你进口人家成功的、更小的、更高科技的东西就行了，我们的软件就不用开发了，用人家的软件不是比你的更好？那明白吧？所以以前我们融入美国主导的全球化，我们是赢家。

但注意，这是有代价的，今天我们面临的困境，恰恰是这样一种融入方式的必然的代价的表现。那么以前的融入是我们在FBI，就是外资直接投资，你来我这开厂，举双手欢迎，然后呢贸易我们俩充分的开放，但是金融不开放，资本项目，就是protfolio investment这块，刚才丁老师讲到的，这块是不开放的。

由于此前这样一种互相融合的方式，所以使得我们其实是什麽，你可以说是寄生，也可以说是嫁接在它的那个体系上的一个植物。它是有代价的。那么数字巨头这些年股票主要涨，主要是什麽？数字巨头，发现了没有？后金融危机时代，过去这12年里面，涨得多的公司股票价格，资产价格上涨厉害的是谁？阿里，就是”三马”。”三马”带头，还有其他一些数字科技，挣了中国市场很多钱，非常有谈判力，非常有谈判地位，非常有定价权，他们的资本增值，在座各位挣到了吗?你们在炒中国股市的时候能挣到钱吗？挣不著吧？那么主要的利润在哪里？那部分经济改革所带来的资本升值主要体现在哪里？纳斯达克，这就是首先原来我们跟美国挂钩的方式。所以美国说要跟中国脱钩，我觉得这个不是什么坏事，我们要的工业化已经实现了，他现在要脱钩，我觉得正中下怀。

当然美国要脱钩，把咱们这边一些，对这个逻辑关系，对里面内在的底层逻辑搞得不太清楚的人给吓著了，所以我认为开放金融市场，其实是以后我们中国人存的钱，直接在上海的金融市场，在深圳的资本金融市场转换成资本，转化投资了。我们的储蓄直接转化成投资了，而不是转化成外汇储备，放在美国国债、欧洲国债、日本国债里边。而是直接放在中国本土的金融市场中间。

然后全球的金融玩家过来，在这个市场里面把它转化成投资。大家明白了吗？那么从这个逻辑上来讲，等到我们金融开放搞成，未来咱们炒上海的股票、深圳的股票，赢钱的机会会大那么一点点，还是有限的，那么所以其实这个过程中，大家注意，大家别觉得金融是虚的，虚的东西很重要，金融和教育和高科技研发，他们其实都是那棵树的根，那个根我们要种在自己家院子里边，重新长出自己的根来。

你说你这个开放你不还是让老外进来挣咱们的钱了吗？大家注意啊，这个是不一样的，以前我们的企业是去人家那儿上市，是遵守人家的规则，主要是人家的投资者，来从我们的企业中获得，而我们现在是种到自家院子里边来，规则，什么时候浇水，什么时候太晒太阳，是由我们来定，所以主导权是不一样的。

12/3/2020

英文版：

Zhang Zhizhen, Former President of the Asian Development Bank and former Director of the International Department of the Central Bank of the Communist Party of China, Ding Yifan, Deputy Director of the World Development Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council of China, and Yao Yang, President of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, also participated in this event.

The translation was done by Jennifer. Subtitles were added by Jennifer too. )

?Why Has the Opening up of China’s Financial Sector Been Accelerating?

What is the key? The key lies in our theme today, the issue of the opening up of the financial sector. Our financial markets are not yet fully open, especially, besides the problem of how foreign institutes can enter, there are problems with how they can operate. And there is another problem, which is, our capital account sector is not really fully opened. So it still imposes certain limitations on Shanghai’s ability to compete on a global level, as I mentioned in my program “Politics and Economics Enlightenment “. In my opinion, there are only one and a half companies in the global village that sell insurance, and that is the United States. The currency of the U.S. is the global reserve currency, so it takes the risk for others, and then the euro is half of an insurance entity. The vast majority of the more than 200 economies of all sizes in the global village are paying a price to transfer risk, right? It is all about risk transfer at a price. It is like an insured customer. There are only one and a half companies in the global village that can sell insurance, can start an insurance company.

The nature of our China is quite special. It is the largest real economy in the global village, right? The largest insured customer who is buying insurance for all sorts of affairs. How much do we pay for the premium? $3 trillion, with a peak of $4.2 trillion.

The problem is, if one day something really happens to us, when we do have a real economic and financial crisis, and we use our foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion or $4 trillion to go to the United States, it’s like an insurance policy, if you go to the United States and ask it to pay us, they’ll go bankrupt, right? This insurance company will say, “Sorry, I won’t do this business anymore.” Right?

Therefore, in terms of this logic, I have always opposed the original way of coupling between China and the U.S. I will talk about this later. I have always advocated the internationalization of the Chinese Renminbi, and I have always advocated that we should also open this insurance company. In order to open this insurance company, which is our topic of today’s discussion, the financial market has to be opened, and the capital account has to be opened to a suitable degree.

So why is it that recently, as we all know, since 2019, especially after we entered 2020, the opening up of China’s financial sector has been accelerating? Why is it accelerating? First of all, when China joined the WTO in 2001, we committed that we would open up as soon as conditions were right. However, after 20 years, as Mr. Yao just said, how many foreign financial institutions have come in? How many have entered? In your daily life, do you buy stocks through foreign investment banks? Are you depositing in a foreign bank? At most, there are a few (foreign) insurance companies. So for this matter, we have to think from others’ angle in the first half of the night, then from our angle in the second half of the night. You’ve promised to open, and you have to deliver that. Otherwise, why should people’s doors be open to you? The openness is mutual.

Political and Tactical Considerations: Wall Street Can’t Fix Trump

So before we coupled with each other in that way that I just talked about. But now people want to decouple from us, so my understanding, and of course, it’s my personal interpretation, why are we starting to accelerate at this point of time? First of all, that’s what we promised 20 years ago, and secondly, the current push by the Chinese government to open up the financial sector, in terms of timing, and I must emphasize again, that this is my personal speculation, may have something to do with political and tactical considerations. Why? Because we know that the Trump administration is in a trade war with us, so why can’t we fix the Trump administration? Why did China and the U.S. use to be able to settle all kinds of issues between 1992 and 2016? No matter what kind of crises we encountered, be it the Yinhe incident, the bombing of the embassy, or the crashing of the plane, things were all solved in no time, like (a couple) do with their quarrels starting at the bedhead but ending at the bed end. We fixed everything in two months. What is the reason? I’m going to throw out something maybe a little bit explosive here. It’s just because we have people at the top. We have our old friends who are at the top of America’s core inner circle of power & influence.

A True Story: How A Wall Street “Old Friend” of the CCP Fixed the Owner of “Politics and Prose” Bookstore in Washington DC. for Xi Jinping

As we don’t have much time, so I won’t go into details here. I’ll only tell a little story. Mayor Zhang just told some stories. It worked very well, right? So I’ll also tell a story.

Oops, it’s a shame that this story …… We are doing a live broadcast on the whole internet today, and it is said that a million people are watching it, so I have to control how much I can tell. I can’t betray others.

Let’s put it this way, in 2015, before the last visit of General Secretary Xi to the United States, we know, that all our systems in the United States needed to work at warming things up, right?

So one of our party’s systems, the way that system could help to warm things up in the U.S., was public opinion. (So it was arranged that ) the first edition of the English version of Xi Jinping’s new book “Xi Jinping: The Governance of China” would be released in the U.S. Before he visited the U.S., we would hold a book release event to help him build up the momentum.

Who should do it? Just like today, they found out (they said to me), Di Dongsheng, you have a way with foreigners and are better at fooling them, right? Because they had seen how I fooled foreigners, and they thought it was very good, so they said, “You act as the host and guest speaker”, so it’s very similar to our event today, where I’m both the host and a guest speaker.

So the venue for this event was already decided by the leader. He said it was next week, next Thursday, 3:30 p.m., Go to the most important “Politics and Prose” bookstore in the United States, on 2650 Connecticut Avenue in Washington? It seems like the number. That is a professional bookstore. So we needed to go over there for the book launch, and we needed to hurry up to communicate with the store.

We all know that the East and West work in different ways. You asked me to secure that venue on such short notice, it was tough.

It turned out that the bookstore owner was very spoiled, he said sorry, we can not host you. Then I asked, I said, you tell me, which author booked this session? What did I mean by that? There’s nothing that dollars can’t handle, right? If I can’t do it with one stack of dollars, I’ll do it with two. Of course, that’s my way of handling things.

But alas, the bookstore owner was very spoiled and said, “I’m sorry, I’m not going to tell you which author has booked this time slot, we have our principles.”

So he was very spoiled. He really put on airs with me.

So I asked around and found out that he was a Democrat before, and was once a journalist in Asia. He was very unhappy with our party, so he purposely chose not to cooperate.

Then I thought that we had lost the chance, at least we needed to change the time and place, right? So I turned this issue over to the leaders, let the leadership solve it. I was only a guest to help, right?

On Thursday morning, the vice department head of that department, who was also the real keynote speaker of that day, called me and said, “Little Di, let’s go ahead with our original plan, at the same time and place, as we planned.”

After lunch I rushed to the bookstore, only to find that the leadership was there earlier than I. He said, the reason why today we were able to follow our original plan, to execute it smoothly, is because of this outstanding person. Then he introduced an old lady to me. She has a big nose, and I could tell that she is Jewish by the first glimpse. She handed me a business card, saying, my name is so-and-so, I won’t betray her name here. She said, my name is so-and-so, nice to meet you.

Attention! She speaks very fluent Mandarin in the Beijing dialect.

I was very surprised. I said, “Oh my, you speak Chinese even better than I do, I can never get rid of my Jiangsu accent.”

Upon hearing that I flattered her, she was very pleased. She said, Let me tell you, not only do I speak Chinese, but I also have Chinese citizenship.

Do you understand this? Do you have foreign citizenship? If you have foreign citizenship, you can’t have Chinese citizenship, right? This old lady wouldn’t give up her dual U.S.-Israeli citizenship for Chinese citizenship, right?

So I immediately understood that she was an old friend of us Chinese people.

She then said another sentence that impressed me very much.

She said, I not only have Chinese citizenship but also have Beijing Hukou( registered permanent residence). I have a Siheyuan (quadrangle dwellings) on Chang’an Street in the Dongcheng district. When you come back to Beijing, come and have tea with me. If you need anything here this year, don’t forget to call me. What did that mean? She could fix anything here.

Then I saw the owner of the bookstore, who was very proud of himself before, with an unhappy face, asking his employees to arrange tables and chairs. He was very reluctant, as he was forced to do this.

I said, “How did you fix him? We tried to communicate with him, but failed. He was very spoiled.” The old lady smiled wryly and said, “I reasoned with him.”

Do you know where that sentence comes from?

It’s a classic line in the famous American Mafia movie “The Godfather”. That guy cut off the head of a horse and stuffed it into someone’s blanket.

Of course, the old lady was not in the Mafia, but who was she? Why did she live in China for 30 years? Why can she speak fluent Beijing dialect? As we just said, Wall Street. She is from a famous, leading global financial institution on Wall Street. She is the president of the Asia region of a top-level financial institution. Of course, it would be politically incorrect for me to go on.

Do you understand what I mean? If you do, put your hands together!

Biden’s Election and CCP’s Goodwill: “There Are A Lot of Deals in All These”

Okay, so in fact, that is to say, to put it bluntly, for the past 30 years, 40 years, we have been utilizing the core power of the United States.

As I said before, since the 1970s, Wall Street had a very strong influence on the domestic and foreign affairs of the United States. So we had a channel to rely on. But the problem is that after 2008, the status of Wall Street has declined, and more importantly, after 2016, Wall Street can’t fix Trump. It’s very awkward. Why? Trump had a previous soft default issue with Wall Street, so there was a conflict between them, but I won’t go into details, I may not have enough time.

So during the US-China trade war, they (Wall Street) tried to help, and I know that my friends on the US side told me that they tried to help, but they couldn’t do much.

But now we’re seeing Biden was elected, the traditional elite, the political elite, the establishment, they’re very close to Wall Street, so you see that, right?

Trump has been saying that Biden’s son has some sort of global foundation. Have you noticed that?

Who helped him (Biden’s son) build the foundations? Got it? There are a lot of deals inside all these.

Then, so, at such a time, we use an appropriate way to express some goodwill. This is my personal understanding based on my limited professional background. If we understand this matter from the perspective of the international political economy, I think there is a tactical and political value in it.

On the other hand, of course, the opening of the financial markets between China and the United States itself, now we are opening up the financial sectors, many people think that opening up the financial markets means major concessions. The purpose of your opening up the financial markets is to hold tight on the big thigh of America, right? You hold on to the United States, crying out loud: don’t run away, don’t dump me, is that the case? In order not to be decoupled?

Open Up Our Financial Market So We Can Have the Dominance

Can you understand it that way? I understand it the other way around. I happen to think- this could be another explosive theory-and I happen to think that opening the financial markets is precisely a sort of decoupling of the United States. We’re opening up the financial markets, and that’s exactly what decoupling is in a sense. So I ask you again, why are we given such a hard time in many places? As you know, I just saw the news today, at noon, people sent me this news, our Chief Executive of Hong Kong, Mrs. Carrie Lam, if she goes out every day to buy groceries, bags, and clothes, do you know what? She carries a large amount of cash. Why? She doesn’t have a bank account anymore, she can’t use a credit card, she can’t use any financial payment tools, she can only buy things with cash.

Why? She was sanctioned by the United States. So why are we being sanctioned by the United States? Why are we being sanctioned by the U.S. on finance, on payments, on cross-border payments, on chips, on software, etc.? What is the reason, and why are we being sanctioned by the United States in terms of basic science and technology? There are of course many reasons behind this, and I would like to make a point here that this reason lies precisely in the way of how the US and China previously coupled.

We know that in the ’80s the Northeast (of China) was booming. Why? The Northeast is the root of the entire Chinese economy. Isn’t it true that our universities do their own basic scientific research? And why? Because at that time we were an independent… You can understand it as a tree, with its own roots, its own trunk, its own stem, its own leaves, its own flowers. Smaller, of course, compared to the U.S.-dominated world capitalist system, the world market system, its division of labor system, you are much smaller, much weaker.

But you are a complete and independent industrial system. China joined the U.S.-dominated world economy, especially on a large scale in 1992, and after 1992 we attracted investment on a large scale, so the Southeast coast developed rapidly and the Northeast declined, why? In fact, it’s because that tree was cut from the middle of the stem, the upper half was grafted directly onto another system’s roots and stem. Get it? That energy was big, that market was big, so it boomed quickly, it blossomed quickly, and we’re all enjoying the fruits of that decision today, and we’re all better off.

But the question is, all choices, all strategies have their price, right? What is the cost? Our original roots and branches withered away. Originally, we had two to three hundred companies that made chips, lithography, and this whole industrial chain. Now they all withered away because you can just import other people’s successful, smaller, more high-tech things, our software does not need to be developed, using other people’s software is better than yours. Understand? So, in the past, after we were integrated into the U.S.-led globalization, we were the winner.

But note that this comes at a price, and the predicament we face today is precisely the manifestation of the inevitable price of such a way of integration. The previous integration was we accept FDI, that is, foreign direct investment, you come to my place to open factories, we welcome you with open arms. As for the trade, we both fully open. But we don’t open the financial sector. As to the capital account, which is, the portfolio investment, just like Mr. Ding said, we don’t open this.

So the previous integration is actually, you can call it a parasite, or you can call it a plant that was grafted onto another system. It comes at a cost. So the digital giants, did you see that the shares that are going up these years are all from digital giants?

Have you noticed it? In the post-financial crisis era, in the past 12 years, who are the companies whose stock prices and asset prices have risen the most? They are Alibaba, the “three Ma”(Jack Ma, MaHuateng, Ma mingzhe). The “three-Ma” led the way, followed by some other digital companies, they made a lot of money from the Chinese market. They have a lot of bargaining power, a lot of bargaining positions, a lot of pricing power, a lot of capital appreciation. Have you guys made any money? Did you guys make any money when you speculated in the Chinese stock market? You didn’t, right? So where is the main profit? Where does the capital appreciation that results from that part of the economic reform take place? Nasdaq. That’s the previous way we were originally coupled with the United States. So the U.S. said they want to decouple with China now, I think this is not a bad thing. The industrialization we wanted before has been achieved. They now want to decouple, I think that’s exactly what we want.

Of course, the U.S. wants to decouple. Some of us, those who don’t quite understand the inner logic of the relationship, got really frightened.

But I think that after we open up our financial sector, in the future, the money Chinese people save will be turned into capital and investment directly at the financial and capital market in Shanghai, in Shenzhen. Our savings will be directly transformed into investment, instead of converting into foreign exchange reserves, and then being put as American government bonds, European government bonds, Japanese government bonds. They will be directly in China’s local financial market.

And then the global financial players come over and turn it into investment in this market. Do you understand? So from this logic, when our financial opening-up succeeds, we will be speculating on Shanghai stocks and Shenzhen stocks in the future, the chance to win money will be a little bit bigger, although still limited. So in fact, during this process, please pay attention, don’t think that the financial sector is something virtual and empty. Virtual things are very important. Finance, education, and high-tech research and development, they are actually the root of the tree, the root we want to plant in our own home, inside our own yard. We need to have our roots grow again.

You may say, won’t this opening up allow foreigners to come in and earn our money? No, this is different. In the past, our enterprises went public at other people’s markets, and followed other people’s rules. It was mainly other people’s investors profiting from our businesses. But now we are planting in our own yard, and the rules, when to water, when to sunbathe, are set by us, so who has the dominance is different.